Tucson Standard

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a drier than average monsoon this year in the southwestern United States, where summer monsoon rainfall typically averages 5.69 inches. However, there remains a possibility, albeit slim, that wetter weather could prevail.

University of Arizona climate scientists Michael Crimmins and Zack Guido convene before and throughout the monsoon season to discuss the official forecast and debate their own predictions on their CLIMAS podcast. They also host Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts, a game inspired by March Madness or fantasy football, allowing participants to bet on monthly rainfall amounts for different cities in the Southwest.

Last year, over 500 people participated online. This year's version introduces a new feature: players can now invite friends into specific online groups to compare scores outside of the main leaderboard. The monsoon officially runs from June 15 to September 30. Participants have until June 30 to place their rainfall estimates for July, with subsequent predictions due at the end of each preceding month.

First, second, and third-place winners will receive $300, $200, and $100 Amazon gift cards respectively at the end of the season. Monthly winners will earn $100 Amazon gift cards each month. All prizes will be distributed in October.

Crimmins and Guido discussed their views on the forecast with University of Arizona News. "There are many different groups – five in North America and a few in Europe – that make models about how the monsoon will go," said Crimmins. "This year, they're all saying the same thing. We should expect a drier – and hotter – next few months."

Addressing whether heat domes affect these forecasts, Crimmins explained: "A heat dome is just a colloquial term for a high-pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere... It's also called the 'four corners high.' But... it's driving really high surface temperatures."

Reflecting on past years' predictions compared to this year's outlook, Crimmins noted: "Over these last four years, we've had quite a bit of whiplash between really wet years and really dry years; 2020 was historically dry... Then we had two seasons back-to-back that were really wet... Last year we had another really dry season."

Guido elaborated on why they host Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts: "We're trying to bring the enjoyment that we have in thinking about the monsoon to other people... We hope that this game encourages people to seek out more information about the monsoon than they otherwise would." He emphasized its significance: "The monsoon is also both socially and ecologically a really important phenomenon for the Southwest."

Crimmins added his perspective on its impact: "The sun gets higher every day... it starts to get hot but it's still dry... then it rains."